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Monday Brief No. 1, Canada edition

Two rate decisions on Wednesday: what each could cost you

Figures checked Read the US edition

In this issue

2 min read

The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday at 9:45am ET

Plus!

  • Gas is up 27.8% in a year.
  • Old Age Security rose 1.4% this month.

This week

Must-read this week

  1. Gas is up 27.8% in a year.

    Prices overall rose 3.1% in the year to September, from 3.0% in August, and gas did most of it. Without gas, prices rose 2.2%; groceries rose 1.7%.

    What it means for you: If your budget feels tighter, look at the gas line first. It's the one that moved.

    Source: Statistics Canada

  2. Old Age Security rose 1.4% this month.

    For October to December, the full monthly payment is up to $762.50 between 65 and 74, 3.0% more than a year ago.

    What it means for you: If you or a parent gets OAS, the Oct 28 deposit is the first at the new amount.

    Source: Government of Canada

  3. Fixed mortgage rates rose before the Bank moved.

    The big banks' posted 5-year fixed rate rose to 6.19% in early October, from 6.09% on Sep 30. The Bank of Canada's rate stayed at 2.25%.

    What it means for you: Fixed rates follow the bond market, not the Bank. If you renew in the next few months, ask your lender to hold today's rate.

    Source: Bank of Canada

The numbers

This week’s rates

The Big Money Move

The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday at 9:45am ET

One Wednesday, two central banks, and your line of credit in the middle.

The Bank has held its rate at 2.25% since October 2025. It decides again at 9:45am ET on Oct 28, hours before the US Fed.

  1. Prime moves with the Bank.

    The big banks' prime rate is 4.45%. Lines of credit, HELOCs and variable mortgages are priced off it, and it follows the Bank's rate, usually from the next day.

    What it means for you: A move on Wednesday reaches those bills on the next statement.

  2. The signals are split.

    Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%. Prices rose 3.1% over the year, mostly on gas (Statistics Canada).

    What it means for you: Weak jobs argue for a cut and rising prices against one. Either way, your prime-based rates follow within days.

Canada has held since last October. The Fed raised again in September.
Line chart of the Bank of Canada's rate and the Fed's since January 2025. Both were cut through 2025. Canada's has been flat since October 2025; the Fed's rose again in September.

Chart source: Bank of Canada (Valet V39079) and Federal Reserve (FRED DFEDTARU), read Oct 24.

Wally can do this

How a variable rate moves

A line of credit or variable mortgage is priced as prime plus or minus a set margin. When the Bank of Canada moves its rate, the big banks usually move prime by the same amount within a day, and your rate follows. On a fixed-payment variable mortgage the payment stays put, but more of it goes to interest.

Put it in your calendar

Coming up

  • Bank of Canada decision · 9:45am ET
  • CPP and OAS payments
  • Jobs report · 8:30am ET

Sources

  1. Bank of Canada: policy rate
  2. Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey
  3. Statistics Canada: CPI
  4. Bank of Canada: posted rates
  5. Government of Canada: OAS payment amounts

Every figure checked against Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and Government of Canada on Oct 24, by Meet, Wally's founder.

General information, not financial advice. Figures can change after the day they were checked; the linked sources are the final word.

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